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| DonkeyHotey |
I have thought for a long time that there was little chance that anyone but Romney could capture the Republican nomination. He has the money and organization that all but Ron Paul lack, and Paul just can't appeal to enough Republicans. But now Public Policy Polling has a poll out showing Gingrich with a six point lead over Romney in South Carolina:
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 34%
Mitt Romney..................................................... 28%
Ron Paul ........................................................... 15%
Rick Santorum................................................... 14%
Rick Perry .......................................................... 5%
Buddy Roemer.................................................... 3%
Someone else/Not sure ...................................... 2%
Even more interesting, or at least entertaining, is that if Stephen Colbert is included he gets 8%, taking a bit from everyone. Colbert's Super PAC, now run by Jon Stewart (which lovechilde wrote about the other day) is running ads urging people to vote for Herman Cain, who has dropped out but whose name still appears on the ballot, but it is hard to know how that will impact things.
What is likely to have an impact is Perry's announcement that he is dropping out and endorsing Gingrich. That leaves only Gingrich and Santorum fighting for the non Romney, non Paul vote. The problem they both have is lack of organization and money. But a strong showing in South Carolina could bring in the money and after Florida on January 31 there are not any really big events until March 6, Super Tuesday.
I still doubt anyone can beat Romney, at least anyone who is in the race, and tonight's ABC interview with Newt's second wife does not seem likely to help him. Still, this might be a more interesting race than I would have expected a few weeks ago.
4 comments :
I would still put my money on Romney, although the combination of actually having lost Iowa to Santorum and the revelations about his taxes have not helped this week. With Perry out and Santorum fading, if the conservatives rally around Gingrich as their consensus non-Romney pick, it could get interesting.
It's S-T-E-P-H-E-N Colbert.
I take this very personally.
Fixed, Stevie.
Romney will likely be the nominee--as the candidate most easily interchangeable with Obama at the least cost to the status quo. Gingrich and Paul and Santorum each look to have some fight in them, judging by tonight's debate, so the entertainment could go on for a few weeks yet.
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